The world is in the process of a seismic economic and organisational shift towards sustainable decarbonisation. Fossil fuels need to be replaced by sustainable alternatives, including solar, wind, and nuclear; the combustion engine is being replaced by the electric motor. It’s a new kind of industrial revolution. As such, the raw materials that are necessary to drive this green transition are different from those that came before. Already, this shift in the location and nature of raw materials procurement is creating challenges and complexities.
Specifically, graphite, cobalt, lithium, and copper (among others) are increasingly essential resources. Graphite and lithium, in particular, are essential to the electric vehicle supply chain. As the EV market grows rapidly, so too does demand for these metals. “Global demand for lithium and graphite, two of the most important materials for EV batteries, is estimated to grow by more than 4000 percent by 2040 in a scenario where the world achieves its climate goals,” notes an IEA report.
Critical mineral supply chains are vulnerable to change
However, geopolitical and environmental pressures threaten to destabilise the supply chains that rely on critical minerals like lithium. From the war in Ukraine to the drought in Panama, securing access to critical materials is an increasingly fraught process.
It doesn’t help that many of these minerals are geographically scattered. Many of them are located in countries outside of traditional manufacturing supply chains. For example, South Africa controls the vast majority of manganese production. Manganese is used to make wind and solar power generation equipment, as well as EV batteries. Speaking of EV batteries, Chile claims the world’s largest lithium reserves, closely followed by Australia, Argentina, and China. Turkey and China have the richest reserves of graphite. And lastly, the Democratic Republic of the Congo possesses the world’s largest cobalt reserves and the seventh-largest copper reserves.
These countries’ position at the root of critical mineral supply chains could “lead the world in both technology and clean energy into the next century,” argues an ORF report. In much the same way that oil reserves have generated massive wealth for individuals, corporations, and nation states over the last century, access to the necessary minerals for building electric cars, solar farms, and other green tech could see similar shifts in economic fortune.
The report adds: “There is no doubt that access to critical raw minerals is a top-of-mind agenda for countries around the world. What is less clear, however, is where global cooperation goes from here.”
Reevaluating the West’s relationship to Africa
Some experts argue for a “strengthening of transatlantic partnerships with Africa.” The Chinese government’s strategy over the past several decades has raced ahead of Europe and North America in this goal. Chinese developers offer “infrastructure projects and no-strings-attached investments that are attractive to leaders who want to build their own economies.”
Europe and the US could aim to replicate this strategy. However, the ORF caution that “if countries want to truly prioritise the green transition, it means not only increasing policy dialogue with Africa, but also coming to the table with worthwhile partnerships.”
Both the US and Europe must “fundamentally change” their relationships with Africa. ORF report author Rachel Rizzo argues that, “if the West wants to build better relationships with Africa, it must offer something of value in exchange.” She argues for genuine industrial partnerships that allow African states to “move up the value chain,” from simply extractive roles to refining and manufacturing.
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