2025 promises to continue many of the evolving trends that have defined global supply chain activities since the pandemic. Increased frequency and severity of disruption takes many forms. From geopolitical conflict, the climate crisis, skills shortage, to economic pressure, and the impact of new technologies, multiple factors have driven a surge in nearshoring and other efforts to increase supply chain resilience.
While the recent past offers clues as to the shape of the future, it’s difficult to predict with certainty. We spoke to supply chain expert Andrew Black, Director at specialist procurement and supply chain consultancy Efficio, about his predictions for 2025 and beyond.
Ongoing geopolitical instability
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to create significant uncertainty which impacts energy markets, security, and international trade. Potential cyberattacks, including on critical infrastructure like undersea internet cables, and regional destabilization (e.g., Houthi rebels targeting Red Sea shipping) are also likely to further strain supply chains and raise costs.
“Last year, the closure of specific trade routes, such as the Suez Canal, resulted in rerouted shipping, longer transit times, and higher freight rates. This has made global trade less predictable and more expensive, highlighting Europe’s reliance on secure and efficient supply chains.
“In response to these disruptions, Europe is expected to increasingly focus on onshoring and nearshoring efforts, particularly in strategic industries like electric vehicle battery production. This shift aims to reduce dependency on distant markets, notably China, and mitigate supply chain risks.”
Trade with China and a decline in international travel:
“Europe will continue to balance trade with China while protecting strategic industries, yet geopolitical tensions and travel disruptions (e.g., airlines avoiding flights over Russia) will make this increasingly challenging.
“The decline in business travel post-COVID, as seen in major European airlines cutting flights to China, is also signalling broader changes in global supply chains. This shift away from business travel could see reduced demand for long-distance logistics and a further pivot toward regional trade.”
Supply chain resilience through visibility and strategic contracts
“Building supply chain resilience in the face of these challenges will require enhanced visibility and transparency. Companies will increasingly invest to support these goals. Example include strategic supplier relationship management (SRM) and better communication with suppliers. Also, the use of technology like web scrapers to gain insights into global supply chains and potential bottlenecks.
“Companies will also look to incorporate clauses into contracts that allow for better monitoring of their suppliers and even their suppliers’ suppliers. These measures will improve transparency and ensure that companies can react quickly to challenges in the supply chain, such as product allocation and delivery delays.”
A shift away from one-size-fits-all supply chains
“European businesses are moving away from the traditional supply chain model. This often focused on outsourcing manufacturing to low-cost countries, particularly in Asia. Instead, businesses are recognising the need for more tailored supply chain strategies. These new models are designed based on the specific characteristics of different products in their portfolios.”
A focus on product-specific supply chain design
“Companies are increasingly designing supply chains that vary according to the nature of the product. Low-margin, high-value products may continue to be sourced from low-cost countries, while high-value, strategic products could be onshored or nearshored. This shift aims to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce geopolitical risks.
“There is also a growing emphasis on product design teams working closely with supply chain professionals to design products that are not just cost-effective but also resilient. The goal is to source components from stable, reliable regions, reducing reliance on complex, global supply chains.”
- Risk & Resilience
- Sourcing & Procurement
