COVID left a permanent mark on global supply chains, from sudden operational shutdowns and force majeure claims, to labour shortages and an almost universal inability to deliver goods and services as expected.
It was largely a capacity crisis. Businesses scrambled to keep supply chains functioning at all and many assumed it would permanently change how organisations approached resilience. Yet as the Iran conflict began to unfold in March, supply chains were once again forced to absorb new pressures while also dealing with familiar commercial tensions.
COVID vs Iran: What’s changed?
The triggers have changed, but the underlying commercial tensions have not. Cost, control, accountability, and risk transfer have remained at the centre of supplier conflict when conditions deteriorate.
We are, again, seeing disputes around delayed deliveries, stockpiling, unilateral price increases, cash preservation and disagreements over who absorbs unexpected cost escalation. The psychology is also familiar, uncertainty makes parties more defensive, more transactional, and more focused on protecting margin and liquidity.
However, the impact of the Iran conflict is less a repeat of COVID and more an evolution of it. The pressure points are different: energy volatility, shipping disruption through key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, rising insurance costs, sanctions exposure, cyber risk, and inflationary pressure are feeding directly into supplier pricing and delivery commitments.
Friction around contractual accountability is a major theme. Suppliers are increasingly seeking pricing adjustments, timeline extensions, or invoking force majeure when fuel costs, logistical bottlenecks, or raw material shortages affect delivery or performance. Buyers, meanwhile, are pushing back harder than they did during COVID and there is far less tolerance today for broad “global disruption” arguments.
It’s also true that preparedness expectations have changed. In 2020, many disruptions were treated as unprecedented and unavoidable. Today, businesses are much more likely to ask whether a supplier should reasonably have anticipated geopolitical instability and built greater resilience into their operations. Resilience planning, alternative sourcing strategies, and geopolitical contingency measures are now commonly shaped as a demand for clearer responses to known risks.
Visibility is another major difference. COVID exposed how little organisations understood their extended supply chains. Since then, companies have invested heavily in supplier monitoring, analytics and supply chain intelligence. As a result, disputes today are often more evidence based and commercially aggressive. Supplier claims are being scrutinised in far greater detail, particularly around cost pass-throughs, delays, and allocation of scarce inventory.
But, out of all these differences, what’s changed the most is the nature of commercial trust. COVID pushed businesses towards collaboration because everyone was experiencing the same crisis at once. The Iran conflict is much more fragmented and its impact is uneven across sectors, regions, and suppliers. It’s a key change that’s leading to more suspicion and tougher negotiation positions rather than collective problem-solving.
We are also seeing a wider shift from efficiency-focused supply chains towards resilience-focused ones. Businesses are reconsidering supplier concentration risk, geographic dependency, and just-in-time operating models. In many ways, the Iran conflict is accelerating a structural change that began during COVID: geopolitical instability is no longer an exceptional event. It is becoming a permanent commercial condition that businesses must be resilient to.
Why organisations are still caught off guard, despite past global disruptions
After any major disruption, resilience rises quickly up the board agenda. However, after a short period of adaptation, commercial pressure soon returns, pushing many organisations back towards efficiency, cost reduction, and short-term performance optimisation.
In practice, suppliers are squeezed on pricing, inventory buffers shrink, and lean operating models reappear as quarterly performance pressures resume. True resilience requires long-term investment, cross-functional coordination, and uncomfortable trade-offs. Those are far harder to sustain without the right infrastructure.
There is also a tendency to prepare for the last visible crisis rather than the next emerging one. After COVID, organisations diversified suppliers, increased inventory buffers, nearshored selected operations, invested in visibility tools, and introduced more scenario planning. Those were important improvements. But many companies effectively strengthened resilience in ways that were highly specific to the pandemic and effectively prepared for “another COVID” rather than for a world defined by continuous and varied disruption.
Today’s risks are far more interconnected, with geopolitical, cyber, economic, and operational triggers compounding each other. However, many organisations still assess them in silos, rather than as part of a continuously shifting risk environment.
Advice for supply chain leaders going forward
The next decade is unlikely to be defined by isolated crises. Instead we can expect continuous and diverse events that trigger new instability and for disruption to become part of normal commercial operating conditions.
Resilience therefore needs to be a leadership capability, not a logistics exercise. Supply chain leaders cannot control world politics or the economy. However, they can control the visibility they have, the quality of decisions made, actions taken under pressure, and the strength of the commercial relationships they foster. Three of the most practical strategies are:
- Strengthening the supplier ecosystem before the crisis arrives
Disputes happen frequently. Any organisation that suggests otherwise is simply not paying close enough attention to their delivery ecosystem. This doesn’t necessarily mean a claim, but instead an inability to find a prompt consensus on issues.
The strongest supplier relationships are built before the crisis arrives, not during it. This means creating shared expectations early, clarifying escalation and resolution pathways, and understanding where friction is most likely to emerge if costs, lead times or delivery assumptions shift.
- Prioritising decision quality and speed
Success is determined less by contingency plans and more by the quality of decision-making and actions taken under pressure. When assumptions change, organisations need clear ownership, rapid escalation and the ability to assess commercial impact before delay becomes delivery failure or cost leakage.
- Treating commercial trust as operational infrastructure
Supply chains do not fail in isolation. They fail through weak visibility, delayed decisions, and fractured commercial relationships. For organisations to outperform during disruption they must be coordinated; able to surface conflict early, maintain trust under pressure and resolve issues before positions harden.
Can resilience be a competitive advantage?
Businesses are no longer competing solely on product, price, or scale. They are competing on stability, adaptability, decision speed, and the strength of the relationships that sit behind delivery. Increasingly, resilience and conflict management are becoming measurable competitive advantages rather than simply risk management disciplines.
In complex commercial environments, this is no longer built through reactive firefighting alone but through visibility, alignment, structured collaboration, and the ability to detect pressure points before they become operational or financial failures. Organisations must deploy the right processes and tools to proactively manage commercial friction, strengthen supplier and customer alignment. This will ensure issues are resolved earlier and businesses will outperform those still relying on fragmented processes and siloed communication.
The conversation is therefore shifting from “How do we survive disruption?” to “How do we outperform through disruption?” And increasingly, the answer lies in the quality, intelligence, and responsiveness of commercial infrastructure.



